Networks, Inequality and Polarization

Period: 2024-

Why do inequality and polarization persist even when individuals face similar formal opportunities? A central hypothesis is that relational structure, not only individual traits, shapes outcomes. This line models schools, families, neighborhoods, and online ties as interconnected systems, testing how network position, social context, and interaction patterns produce unequal trajectories and polarized attitudes.

In social media settings, this work examines how belief systems, signed ties, and information exposure shape polarization, hidden extremes, and possible pathways to depolarization.

Grants and Funded Projects

• NWO Veni: The Social Contexts of Upward Mobility

  NWO · EUR 320k · 2024-2027

  Role: Principal Investigator

  Estimates how combinations of social contexts (family, school, neighborhood, peers) structure mobility and inequality using whole-population network data.

• ZonMw BePrepared: Vaccination Decision Profiles

  ZonMw · EUR 146k (UU share) · 2024-2025

  Role: Co-applicant

  Quantifies how beliefs and social connectivity jointly shape vaccination uptake across communities and subpopulations.

• FSBS Starter Grant: Uncovering the Dynamics of Belief Systems

  Faculty of Social and Behavioural Sciences (UU) · 1 PhD · 2024

  Role: Co-applicant

  Develops network-based and social-media-based methodology to study belief-system polarization, supporting the Ozgur Togay PhD line.

• Applied Data Science (ADS) SIG Grant: Leveraging LLMs for Stance Detection and Political Polarization

  Applied Data Science, Utrecht University · EUR 5k · 2024-2025

  Role: Co-applicant

  Builds and validates LLM-based target/stance detection workflows for measuring online political polarization, including a FAIR benchmark dataset.

Selected Publications

1. Population-Scale Network Embeddings Expose Educational Divides in Network Structure Related to Right-Wing Populist Voting

   M Luken, J Garcia-Bernardo, S Deb, F Hafner, M Khosla (2025). arXiv preprint.

   PDF

2. Involvement as a Polarizing Factor? A Comprehensive Multi-Method Analysis across Representative Datasets

   M Hoffstadt, I Smal, H van der Maas, J Garcia-Bernardo (2025). European Journal of Social Psychology.

   PDF

3. ReMoDe - Recursive modality detection in distributions of ordinal data

   M Hoffstadt, L Waldorp, J Garcia-Bernardo, H van der Maas (2026). British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology.

   Software

4. Community detection in bipartite signed networks is highly dependent on parameter choice

   E Candellone, EJ van Kesteren, S Chelmi, J Garcia-Bernardo (2025). Advances in Complex Systems.

   Code PDF

5. Negative ties highlight hidden extremes in social media polarization

   E Candellone, SA Babul, O Togay, A Bovet, J Garcia-Bernardo (2025). Network Science.

   Code PDF

6. Assessing COVID-19 transmission through school and family networks using population-level registry data from the Netherlands

   J Garcia-Bernardo, C Hedde-von Westernhagen, T Emery, AJ van Hoek (2024). Scientific Reports.

   Code PDF

7. Predicting COVID-19 infections using multi-layer centrality measures in population-scale networks

   C Hedde-von Westernhagen, A Bagheri, J Garcia-Bernardo (2024). Applied Network Science.

   Code PDF

8. Social Transmission along Multiple Pathways Promotes Information Fidelity and Reduces Divisiveness

   Z Neu, J Garcia-Bernardo, M Hardy, A Santoro, A Morgan, et al. (2025). OSF preprint.

   Code PDF

9. Prediction Gaps as Pathways to Explanation: Rethinking Educational Outcomes through Differences in Model Performance

   J Garcia-Bernardo, E Jaspers, W Machado, S Plach, EJ van Leeuwen (2025). arXiv preprint.

   Code PDF

10. netCBS: Package to efficiently create network measures using CBS networks (POPNET) in the RA

    J Garcia-Bernardo (2024). Zenodo software release.

    Software